Agile Metrics for Predictability
How to answer "When Will It Be Done?" in Lean-Agile environments
“When will it be done?” “How many items will I get in the next release?” “When will all of the items in the backlog be completed?” Those are some of the first questions that your customers will ask you once you start work for them. This hands-on workshop will provide you with the tools you need to answer those questions predictably. In this tutorial, attendees will learn what metrics are necessary for accurate forecasting, how to visualize those metrics in appropriate analytics, how to use those analytics make reliable forecasts and understand risk, and, finally, how to make meaningful interventions for overall process improvement.
This class may (but is in no way guaranteed to) help you pass ProKanban.org's Professional Applied Metrics (PAM) certification. For more information about this certification, please see https://prokanban.org/professional-applied-metrics
- An understanding of what Lean-Agile metrics are necessary for predictability
- An understanding of some basic principles of forecasting--especially in complex environments
- An ability to make accurate forecasts for single items including how to forecast when an individual story, epic, or feature will be done
- An ability to make accurate forecasts for multiple items including how to know when all items remaining in a backlog will be done or to know how many items will be completed by a given release date and the risks associated with each
- An understanding of how to use flow metrics and analytics to achieve a stable process including an understanding of why a stable process is necessary for accurate forecasting
This Tutorial Is For
- Anyone who has been asked to answer “When Will It Be Done?” or otherwise had to give an estimate for a User Story, Epic, Feature, Project, and/or Release
- Executives, managers, or team members who want better understanding and transparency into the health and performance of their process
- Anyone who currently uses Agile or Lean frameworks or methodologies and is interested in how to improve the overall predictability and efficiency of their current practices
- Forecasting Principles: an introduction to the role that uncertainty plays when making forecasts and some techniques to use to mitigate its impact
- Flow Metrics: a deep dive into WIP, Cycle Time, and Throughput—including why you need to track them, how they are related through Little’s Law, and why they are important for forecasting
- Flow Analytics: an introduction to Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs), Scatterplots, Histograms, and other supporting charts—including a detailed discussion of what they are, how to generate them correctly, and how to utilize them for better predictability
- Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation: how to use flow metrics to answer “When will it be done?”—including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and statistical sampling methods for forecasting (no advanced mathematics required!)
- Quantifying Risk and Risk Management: how an understanding of risk is crucial to developing accurate forecasts—including how to quantify risk in the different analytics’ charts and how changing forecast inputs can help to develop an overall risk profile
- How to Get Started: how to immediately apply these techniques to your current project or process to achieve the results you are looking for—including what data to collect, how to mine your data, and how much data you need to begin
Included In This Class
- 50+ videos (and counting) covering all of the topics mentioned above
- English Closed Captions for all non-optional videos
- Excerpts from both of Daniel's books to reinforce concepts covered
- Exercises and Quizzes to help validate understanding
- References for further learning
Coming Soon As Part of Your Subscription!
- Additional videos to cover more topics
- Additional quizzes
- And more!
Where Can You Find Out More?
To learn more about all of the products and services that ActionableAgile offers or to get help with any existing ActionableAgile product you may already have, please visit https://actionableagile.com.
To learn more about flow and flow principles for predictability, please visit https://prokanban.org.
Daniel Vacanti is a 25-plus year software industry veteran who has spent most of his career focusing on Lean and Agile practices. In 2007, he helped to develop the Kanban strategy for knowledge work and managed the world’s first project implementation of Kanban that year. He has been conducting Lean-Agile training, coaching, and consulting ever since. In 2011 he founded ActionableAgile(TM) which provides industry-leading predictive analytics tools and services organizations that utilize Lean-Agile practices. In 2015 he published his first book, “Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability”, which is the definitive guide to flow-based metrics and analytics. in 2018 he published his follow-up book "When Will It Be Done?" which focuses on the principles and mechanics of forecasting and predictability in a Lean-Agile context. In 2020 Daniel co-founded ProKanban.org whose purpose is to foster a safe, inclusive, diverse community to promote flow practices around the world.
PreviewIntroduction - START HERE! (4:08)
StartGetting Ready - What Data To Collect (5:09)
StartActionableAgile Analytics Overview - Navigation and Loading Data (3:30)
StartActionableAgile Analytics Overview - Filtering and Chart Controls (5:39)
StartActionableAgile Analytics Data File Format
StartLoading Data Into ActionableAgile Analytics (all versions)
PreviewSection Overview (1:20)
StartWhere to Begin - What is Throughput? (3:40)
StartHow To Calculate Throughput (3:10)
StartProblems with Traditional Forecasting Techniques (3:55)
StartMonte Carlo Simulation (MCS) Foundations (4:16)
StartMCS Using Throughput (6:43)
StartHow To Read an MCS Results Histogram (5:18)
StartMCS "When" in ActionableAgile (5:59)
StartChapter 5 from "When Will It Be Done?" - Forecasts for Multiple Items
StartExercise: MCS How Long to Complete a List of Work Items?